Key figures of the population forecasts 2020-2070

CONTENTS

1. General information
2. Definitions and explanation of symbols
3. Links to relevant tables and articles
4. Sources and methods
5. Further information


1. GENERAL INFORMATION

This table contains forecasts (including intervals) of the population of The Netherlands on 1 January by age groups (three age-groups) and population dynamics: live births, deaths and external migration. Furthermore, the table contains information about the total fertility rate, demographic pressure and (period) life expectancy at birth and at age 65 by sex.

Data available from: 2020-2070

Status of the figures:
The figures in this table are calculated forecasts.

Changes as of 15 December 2023:
None, this table was discontinued. See section 3 for the successor of this table.

Changes as of 16 December 2020:
In this new table, the previous forecast is adjusted based on the most recent insights, the forecast period now runs from 2020 to 2070.

When will new figures be published?
New figures will appear December 2026.


2. DEFINITIONS AND EXPLANATION OF SYMBOLS

Definitions:

Age-specific fertility rate
The number of live-born children born by women of a particular age group in a given period related to the average number of women in that age group and period.

Death
Person declared dead by an authorized doctor.

Demographic pressure
The sum of the number of people aged between 0 and 20 and people aged 65 and over, in relation to people aged 20 to 65. This ratio is an indicator of the pressure of the non-active population on the labour force.

External migration
People moving to the Netherlands from another country or people leaving for another country.

Forecast
Expected future development.

Forecast-interval
Lower and upper limits, of which is assumed that the chance is 67% whether 95% that the future value of the key figure will be between these percentages.

Live birth
A baby showing some sign of life after birth, regardless of the duration of pregnancy.

Period life expectancy (at a given age)
The average number of years a person would live, if he or she experienced the age-specific mortality rates for that time period throughout his or her life.

Population
The total number of people residing in The Netherlands. 
In the population statistics compiled by Statistics Netherlands the inhabitants are the people registered in the population register of a Dutch municipality.

Population dynamics
Changes in size of the population.

Total fertility rate
This figure can be interpreted as the average number of children a woman would have if the age-specific fertility rates in a given period were to apply throughout her life.

Explanation of symbols:

Empty cell	: figure not applicable
. 		: figure is unknown, insufficiently reliable or confidential
*		: provisional figure 
**		: revised provisional figure

Figures are rounded off. Consequently, the sum of the detail data can deviate from the total.


3. LINKS TO RELEVANT TABLES AND ARTICLES

Relevant table:
Key figures of the population forecasts 2023-2070

More information can be found in the themepage Population


4. SOURCES AND METHODS

Statistics Netherlands publishes national population forecasts yearly. Every other year it draws up long-term forecasts, alternated with projections for the short term (five years into the future from the last observed year.) The figures in this publication are from the long-term forecast drawn up in December 2010 and refer to the period 2010-2060. The StatLine publication 'Population; key figures' contains figures on the observed population. The forecast describes the expected growth of the population in the future.

Accuracy / reliability
In the forecast uncertainty ranges are calculated of the future population size and composition. 
The uncertainty ranges are based on assumptions on the uncertainty of the future birth, mortality, immigration and emigration.
This publication gives upper and lower limits of the 67% and 95% forecast intervals, between which the probability is 67% and 95% respectively that the future population size will be. It should be taken into account that this probability itself is a forecast, as it is based on assumptions of which the validity is uncertain.


5. FURTHER INFORMATION

Infoservice

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